Democrats Eye Senate and House Gains as Midterms Near and Trump Approval Sinks

Nine days before the US midterm elections, Democrats are hoping for a wave that could flip several Senate seats. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from last week put President Donald Trump's approval rating at an all-time low of 31%.

CNN analysts ranked the Senate seats most likely to change hands. In order, they are North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire and Georgia. Several of these are Republican strongholds, including states Trump carried by double digits in the 2024 election.

Democrats would need to win seven of the 10 to reach a 51-seat Senate majority. Georgia is the only one on the list where a seat could move from Democratic to Republican hands. Even there, a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found Sen. John Ossoff, a Democrat, leading Republican Rep. Mike Collins by eight points.

In the House of Representatives, the Cook Political Report estimates that Democrats need to gain only one or two of the 435 seats to win back a majority. Cook rates 21 races as toss-ups, 16 of them in Republican-held seats and five in Democratic-held ones. It says ten Republican-held seats could flip to Democrats, while eight Democratic seats could flip to Republicans.

Another Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this month showed Democrats ahead of Republicans by 7 points, 44% to 37%. Much of the slide in Republican support came from women: 50% of female voters said they would back Democrats, against 32% who favored Republicans. Men also leaned Democratic, though by a narrower margin.

CNN cautioned that the House and Senate rarely change hands in the same year. The last time Democrats won both chambers was in 2006, in a wave driven by opposition to the war in Iraq. The president's party also historically loses House seats in midterm elections.

Trump and Republicans have spent months urging their base to vote and have tried some unconventional ways to lift turnout. At the start of October, Trump promised to send US adults $5,000 if Republicans win big. It is unclear how the payments would be delivered or funded, and NBC reported the plan would cost at least $1.3 trillion.

Trump also told crowds in Tennessee earlier this month that he expects to take the blame for losses. "If we don't win the midterms, they're going to blame me," he said, adding that a win would earn him no credit. "But I'm working my ass off. You better get out there and vote." Sources close to Trump told NBC he is in "grind it out mode" and prepared for the worst-case scenario.

Meanwhile, voters are already turning out. NBC News data updated Sunday showed at least 26 million Americans have cast ballots in early voting ahead of November 3. Of those, 47% are registered Democrats, 35% are registered Republicans and 18% are registered as other. Some 14.3 million ballots were returned by mail, and at least 12.6 million were cast in person at early voting sites.